Duke often is overvalued. I find that to be the case once again here. 

The Tar Heels knocked off Duke, 94-81, as 11-point road 'dogs on March 5 in Mike Krzyzewski's final home game. So I'm not buying into the Tar Heels being an underdog in New Orleans on a neutral court. If Duke were laying four or more points to North Carolina during the team's past 10 meetings, the Blue Devils would be 2-8 ATS. 

North Carolina has come on strong, winning 16 of its last 19 games. The Tar Heels have defeated many elite foes during this span, not just Duke. Among North Carolina's victories were wins against UCLA, Baylor, Virginia, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Marquette and surprising St. Peter's.

Duke ranks 13th in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.9 percent. Yet Duke has shot far better during its four NCAA Tournament games never dipping below 52 percent from the floor. The Blue Devils are shooting a combined 53.8 percent from the floor during their last four games. I can't see Duke sustaining that sizzling shooting especially given the tough shooting environment in the spacious New Orleans Superdome. 

The Tar Heels have stepped up their defense, too, holding their last two opponents - St. Peter's and UCLA - to a combined average of 57.5 points.