The Maple Leafs haven't won a first-round playoff series in 18 years. I don't see them ending that streak with an upset road victory against the Lightning today.

Tampa Bay has won 70 percent of its last 113 home contests. Even more impressive is the Lightning are 17-0 in the playoffs following a loss. Toronto is up 3-2 in the series. The Lightning followed each of their losses in this series with multiple goal victories.

The highly-experienced two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have earned my respect and trust especially at home where they have the final say on line changes.