The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record.

The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia.

Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.

Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings.