Until his last two starts, Reds rookie pitcher Hunter Greene looked more like Hunter Biden than a big league pitcher. But the combination of Green pitching lights out in his last two starts against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, the Brewers losing 12 of their last 15 and the Reds being home has this game priced in the pick range.

I'm not buying Greene and his 5.10 ERA yet. The Reds still are a bad team. The Brewers aren't although they are in a rough patch right now.

The Brewers have faced Greene twice already. They've gotten to him for 10 runs in eight innings, including six homers. Greene already has surrendered 15 homers in 60 innings. That projects to him giving up 39 homers on the season.

Keep in mind, too, the Reds rank last in bullpen ERA.

Eric Lauer gets the start for Milwaukee. He's one of the better bottom-of-the-rotation type starters in the league with a 5-2 record and 3.36 ERA. The Brewers are 7-4 in Lauer's starts this season. Josh Hader won't be available due to personal reasons, but the Brewers still hold a strong bullpen edge. Devin Williams is better than any Cincinnati reliever.

As for the game being in Cincinnati, the Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 games at Great American Ball Park.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has won 64 percent of his last 36 MLB premium plays and has cashed his last two free selections, too, including an easy run line winner with the Phillies on Thursday. Stephen is unbeaten on his Canadian Football League plays and has a CFL play today along with his Run Line Game of the Week.)