Stephen Nover's NFL Back the Chalk
(NFL) Arizona vs. Cleveland,
Point Spread: -10.50 | -110.00 Cleveland (Home)
Result: Win
The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. 

I didn't want to jump the gun on this one, but now that we know Deshaun Watson will be under center for Cleveland instead of P.J. Walker and the rookie Tune will be in the Lion's Den not mobile Kyler Murray, I'm going to lay the wood with Cleveland. 

This is a give-up game for the Cardinals. If it weren't, they would have held on to Joshua Dobbs, or started Murray. Tune is facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game and also ranks No. 1 in pass defense. He doesn't have a reliable running back either with James Conner a week away from returning. 

Watson was coming off his best game as a Brown on Sept. 24 against the Titans where he was 27-of-33 passing for 289 yards and two TD's. His QB rating was 123.4. However, he's thrown just five passes since then as the Browns have given him the baby treatment holding him out of games. But now Watson is ready.

He gets an Arizona defense that ranks in the bottom-seven in scoring defense and defensive total yards.