I'm going to back the Red Sox in a starting pitching battle between rookies Brayan Bello against Nick Lodolo. But this is an action game for me as most of my handicap is based on Boston being the superior team. 

The Red Sox play in a much harder division than the Reds. Yet they have a far superior record to the Reds.

Boston is above .500 in its last seven games. The Reds have dropped nine of their past 11 games. 

Bello has shown flashes of his high ceiling. The Reds are a step down for him as he's gone against the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Brewers and Blue Jays twice in six of his last eight starts. 

The Red Sox have a bullpen edge, too. The Reds rank third-from-last in bullpen ERA. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is a blazing 11-2 on his last 13 plays. Stephen is beating baseball again this season. He's off to a tremendous start in football, too, going 12-2 on his NFL plays following a 7-0 Week 2 and is 14-7 on his college football plays. All of Stephen's picks come with his trademark deep dive analysis.)