The Brewers are in must-win mode trailing the Phillies by half-a-game for the final National wild-card berth. They are home and have reigning Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes on the mound against the lowly Marlins.

So it's a no-brainer to back the Brewers, right? 

Not so fast. 

The Marlins upset the Brewers on Thursday and they can do it again today with Sandy Alcantara on the hill. 

I give Miami the starting pitching edge. Alcantara is 14-8 with a 2.32 ERA. He leads the majors in complete games and is in great form with a 2-1 record and 1.50 ERA in his last three starts. 

Burnes is No. 2 in the National League in strikeouts. But he hasn't been in top form post All-Star break with a 4.54 ERA in his last 13 starts. Opponents have reached Burnes for five runs during four of his last seven starts. 

The Brewers' bullpen isn't nearly as dominant following their head-scratching trade of closer Josh Hader. 

So at this plus price, the Marlins with Alcantara are at least worth a peanut.