I see a class difference here much bigger than the point spread. Cincinnati has won the past two AAC titles. The Bearcats have won five in a row and are fresh after being idle last week.

SMU has failed to cover in its last five games. The Mustangs surrender nearly 30 points a game and rank 122nd in run defense.

Cincinnati averages 38.2 points a game. SMU's strength is its passing attack. The Bearcats have a top-20 pass defense. Cincinnati gives up 4.3 yards per play compared to the Mustangs allowing 6.2 yards per play.

The Bearcats have defeated the Mustangs by 29 points and 34 points during the last two seasons. The gap isn't that large this season, but it's still substantial enough for the Bearcats to easily cover the spread.