This comes down to value again for me. St. Louis is off to a slow start. But the Mariners also are below .500.

The line is high because Seattle is starting Luis Castillo. He's off to a huge start going 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA. I've always considered the streaky Castillo better than average rather than great. I think he's overrated. Castillo, a former Reds player, has a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts versus St. Louis.

Castillo's numbers are due to go up while Cardinals starter, Miles Mikolas, numbers are due to go down. The righthander has an 8.10 ERA. Mikolas had his best outing of the season in his last start, however. He held the surprising 14-7 Pirates to two runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mariners are 2-6 the past eight times they've faced a righty starter at home.