Discount their two play-in games and this will be the first time in eight playoff games the Heat are favored. Justified? Yes. They are home and I fully expect Jimmy Butler to play having had five days to deal with his sprained ankle.

But this doesn't mean Miami is the right side.

The Knicks are 38-16-1(70 percent) in their last 55 road games. Julius Randle showed he was past his ankle injury by scoring 25 points, pulling down 12 rebounds and dishing off eight assists in the Knicks' 111-105 Game 2 win this past Tuesday. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are playing at high levels, too, for the Knicks. Josh Hart has been a key role player for New York also.

Butler was superman in leading Miami to a stunning upset of Milwaukee in the Heat's first round matchup. Butler, however, may not be as effective because of his sore ankle. Remember, too, the Heat are without their third-leading scorer and most accurate 3-point shooter with Tyler Herro out.

The Heat fluctuated from being 6-to-10 point road underdogs to the Knicks in Game 2. Now they're currently four-point favorites. So I see plenty of line value to the Knicks. Miami is 11-28-1 ATS (29 percent) in their last 40 games following a point spread cover.