Grayson Rodriguez is a top pitching prospect for the Orioles. But if you take away his two starts against the Tigers, Rodriguez has allowed 21 earned runs in his other four starts spanning 18 innings.

Rodriguez's season ERA is 5.46. He just surrendered six runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings during a 13-10 win against the Royals last Thursday. The league has a good read on Rodriguez.

The lay price is low enough to back the Rays, who rank No. 1 in homers and batting average while scoring the second-most runs. These powerful numbers are one of the reasons why Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball at 29-7.

Zach Eflin gets the start for Tampa Bay. He's having a breakthrough season after seven mediocre years with the Phillies. Eflin is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He has earned my trust now that he's with the Rays.