I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. 

The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. 

Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. 

The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage.