This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GOY on MTSU.

Jacksonville State is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS, while MTSU is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS. Despite their records, the home side is the favorite here, but not favored by nearly enough in my estimation.

The Blue Raiders are running out of time to make a serious run at a bowl bid, so it's essentially do or die this weekend here at home. Put up or shut up etc.

Jacksonville State is coming off a thrilling 35-28 OT win at now 0-4 Sam Houston State is a 7-point favorite, and I predict a predictable letdown in this position. Logan Smothers has been decent iwth 474 yards passing, five TD's and zero INT's.

MTSU has won four of its last six home games. QB Nicholas Vattiato has 1,168 yards passing and a 7:4 TD:INT.

MTSU has played the more difficult schedule to this point. The oddsmakers are trying to tell us something here (opponents have been Alabama, Missouri, Colorado State and Western Kentucky.)

The more desperate and battle-tested home side is going to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, while the visiting side looks finally ready for a big letdown.

Lay the points, the play is MTSU.

Good luck, NP