This is 10* BIG 12 GOY on UCF.

Outright victory?! I'm absolutely NOT predicting that of course. But if you've followed me for any length of time, then you know I am primarily a "situational" and contrarian handicapper, and this one definitely falls right into my "wheel-house."

The majority of the early public money is definitely on 6-0 SU/ATS Oklahoma here. But I think the Sooners will in fact get caught looking past UCF here to its much more difficult upcoming schedule at KU and OKST respectively after this. I don't know if this a letdown spot, but overall it looks suspiciously like a "trap" to me for the home side.

No such luxury obviously for 3-3 UCF, which enters off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, most recently a 51-22 loss at the Jayhawks. But that was two weeks ago and now UCF comes in fresh and prepared for this contest as well (and note that the Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.)

Bye weeks can work one of two ways. Either they come at a great time for a team that needs a break, or they come at a horrible time and disrupt chemistry. Rest leads to rust here for OKL as well after it comes out of its bye week also (after a thrilling 34-30 outright win over Texas as a 4-point dog.)

UCF has scored 31 points in four of six games this year and I expect a very competitive battle until the final moments.

No outright, but closer than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is UCF.

Good luck, NP