This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Dolphins.

For a number of different reasons I think the Fish can keep this one close enough to at the very least, sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch which what I believe to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them. I jumped on this line right when it came out and got 9, it's since come down a bit from that, but I still really love this selection regardless. Both teams come into this game highly motivated, Miami needs an outright win to keep its playoff hopes alive, while a victory for the home side will wrap up the division title. New England would survive a 23-14 effort in San Diego last week, bouncing back from a 26-21 loss at Green Bay the week before. But with cream puffs at the Jets next week and then at home to the Bills to end the year, it's not too hard to imagine the home side "looking ahead" to those games. And that's just the situational factor that Miami (and us!) is looking to take advantage of here. This is the second game between the two divisional rivals, Miami actually won 33-20 back on September 7th, Pats' QB Tom Brady was 29 of 56 for 249 yards, while also losing two fumbles. Miami comes in motivated after last Sunday's 28-13 setback to Baltimore: "I have a lot of faith and confidence in these guys," Dolphins coach Joe Philbin said earlier in the week. "We've got a huge challenge this week going up to New England. I told them in the locker room, we're going to find out a lot this week." Miami's defense has been suspect the last few weeks but gets a big boost today with the expected return of Cortland Finnegan. And from a trend based stand point, this is about as strong a play as you could possibly ask for, note that the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while the Patriots are just 1-2 ATS vs. division opponents this season and only 6-8 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to MIAMI as the savvy move in this one.

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