AAA's 10* AAC THU NIGHT TOTAL OF YEAR (HIT NON-CONF "GOY" ON SAT!)
(NCAAF) Houston vs. Cincinnati,
Total: 64.50 | -106.00 Under
Result: Loss
This is a 10* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Houston and Cincinnati.

Setting the scene: Houston is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, while the O/U is 0-2. Cincinnatti is 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS and the O/U is 1-1. In 2013 they went UNDER the number, in 2014 they went OVER. In 2015 Houston would need to hold on for the 33-30 win, the total staying well below the sky-high number of 70.5 in that one. This year the total has dropped nearly an entire touchdown worth of points, making the OVER the savvy move in our opinion.

The Cougars: Houston shocked Oklahoma 33-23 in its opener and then kept its focus last week in defeating FCS Lamar 42-0. Star QB Greg Ward Jr. didn't even play in the game, so he'll be very fresh tonight. Also starting tailback Duke Catalon was given the week off to nurse a sprained ankle. Houston is in a very good position coming into this Thursday night contest.

The Bearcats: Cincinnati enters off a big win over Purdue, Hayden Moore was 19 of 32 for 250 yards with three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns. The Bearcats also looked strong on the ground, rushing for 262 yards on 46 carries. The defense was also good, grabbing five interception, three of which led directly to major scores.

The bottom line: These are two capable, top-notch offenses, yet neither side has seen the total actually eclipse the posted number many times over the last few years in any of the ATS O/U statistical categories. But we think that finally changes this evening. A focused Ward Jr. squaring off against the dual threat Moore = high-scoring shootout! Play the OVER.

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