This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

We had a play on the Pirates yesterday and we think they offer great value in this spot as well. The Phillies go with Luis Castillo (4-7, 5.79 ERA) who comes in off a loss against St. Louis on Saturday after allowing five runs off four hits over six innings. Castillo would go on to give up two home runs and we'll point out that while he averaged 97.5 MPH on his fast-ball last year, he's averaging just 95.3 this season. Also note that he's been horrible on the road this year with a 2-4, 6.64 ERA record. The home side hands the ball to Ivan Nova (3-5, 4.68 ERA), who returned from a stint on the DL to earn a dominant victory over Chicago on Sunday, allowing one run off four hits with eight strikeouts over six innings. It was Nova's second highest strikeout total for the year and he'll now look to improve upon his solid 3-2, 3.53 ERA in all "day" contests to this point. Note that the Reds are just 6-9 (-2.8 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 6-2 (+3.4 units) in its last eight home games when the money line is set between +125 to -125. Play on the PIRATES.

AAA Sports