Play: Over
Rating: 8/10*

The Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs for the opener of a four-game series on Thursday. I think we'll see plenty of runs.

Jake Arrieta (6-5, 4.64 ERA) takes the ball for the Cubs. He's had a season to forget and has surrendered seven runs (six earned) through his past nine innings of work. Arrieta has good career numbers against Miami but I don't think that will do him any good tonight. Over is 9-4 in Arrieta's last 13 starts overall.

The Marlins turn to left-hander Jeff Locke (0-2, 4.58 ERA) who is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list. Locke is 1-5 with a 5.98 ERA in 13 career games (11 starts) against the Cubs.

Miami defeated Washington 2-1 yesterday. Over is 19-6-2 in the Marlins last 27 after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game.