The New York Yankees defeated American League East rivals Boston 4-3 on Saturday. Under is now 4-1 in the last five meetings at Fenway Park, and I think the number for the total in Sunday's contest is set way to high considering the pitching matchup.

Rick Porcello (7-14, 4.59 ERA) takes the ball for the home team. He has compiled a 3.79 ERA in three meetings with the Yankees this season, and the reigning Cy Young Award winner is coming off a pair of solid outings. Under is 9-2 in Porcello's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and note Porcello's 2.64 ERA in seven day starts on the season.

The Yankees reply with Sonny Gray (7-7, 3.37 ERA) who has conceded two or fewer earned runs in each of his last nine starts. Gray is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA in seven day starts on the season and I expect a solid performance in his first start in this classic rivalry.

Under is 9-2-1 in the Yankees last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

My selection is a 10* play on Under 9.5 runs.