The Mississippi State Bulldogs had allowed a total of just 28 points through three straight victories (including a 37-7 beat down of LSU as a 7.5-point dog) before taking a 31-3 beating at Georgia last week. I think the Bulldogs D will step it up once again here at Auburn in Week 5 and that the visitors will cover the spread. The Tigers are coming off a 51-14 blasting of Missouri as an 18.5-point road favorite, but that was pretty much their first strong performance of the season.

In short, Mississippi State was awful last week (QB Nick Fitzgerald had just 83 passing yards) while Auburn was outstanding, and the books are overreacting giving the Bulldogs too many points here. Note that the Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in September while the Tigers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September.

My selection is an 8* play on Mississippi State Bulldogs.