The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been torn apart defensively in recent weeks, giving up a total of 84 points through three consecutive losses while going 0-3 ATS. Here they'll host an Atlanta Falcons team that has won four of its last five games (lone loss against Minnesota) to put itself in a position where it still controls its own playoff destiny. The math is simple; If the Falcons win out in their last three games they will claim the NFC South title.

The Falcons defeated the Bucs 34-20 home in Atlanta on Nov. 26 in a matchup where Matt Ryan was 26-of-35 for 317 yards while receiver Julio Jones had 12 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay's defense has struggled on the pass rush all season and ranks 32nd in the NFL with 17 sacks.

Buccaneers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

My selection is a 10* play on Atlanta Falcons.