The Georgia State Panthers stunned Baylor on Thursday, hitting a last second shot that was nothing short of a miracle. The inconsistent Bears paid a steep price for underestimating this feisty underdog, but I think a more disciplined Xavier team is unlikely to make the same mistake.

Here are my keys to the game:

1 Previous History - These two teams are cut from very different cloth, as evidenced by the fact that Xavier has covered the spread at a rate of 19-6-2 ATS in it's last 27 NCAA Tournament games. The Panthers record against top tier teams doesn't impress much, as they are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 versus opponents with a winning percentage greater than .600.

2. Offense - The Panthers have averaged just 47.5 points in their last two games, and they shot just 40.7% from the field in the win over Baylor. That likely isn't going to cut it against an Xavier team that averages almost 74 points per game. The Musketeers also ranked 17th overall shooting 48% from the field during the season.

3. X-Factor - It doesn't help matters the Georgia State's second leading scorer has been sidelined with a hamstring injury. He will try to return today, but if he's less than 100% he may do more harm than good.

Selection: This is a play on the Xavier Musketeers (8*)