The AL East leading New York Yankees have won five of their last six and can complete the sweep of a three game series against rivals the Boston Red Sox tonight. The Red Sox have won just three of their last 10 games, and I think this will be a close encounter where the value lies with a play on the Yankees on the run-line.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Red Sox will hand the ball to Joe Kelly (1-0, 4.94 ERA) who started the season with two strong outings, including seven innings in the Bronx where he gave up just one run on one hit. He's been lit up in each of his last two starts though, surrendering a total of 10 runs on 13 hits with a pair of homers over just 11 innings and the visitors are coming in with way hotter bats here than what was the case three weeks ago. The Yankees will send Adam Warren (1-1, 4.35 ERA) and he's coming off a solid start against the Rays where he conceded just one run on five hits over five innings. The Yankees have won each of his last three starts and he gave up just two runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings against Boston in his only loss of the season so far. He hurled 12 1/3 innings as a reliever against Boston last year, limiting the Red Sox to just one run on four hits with 13 strikeouts.

2. Road Warriors - The Yankees have won five straight away from home and each of their last four coming in as a road underdog. They've had good success over recent meetings in Boston winning all but one of the last seven.

3. X-Factor - The Yankees Chris Young has swung a hot bat of late as he's 4-for-8 with a home run over his last two starts.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Yankees +1.5 (8*)