The Atlanta Hawks struggled against the Nets in the first round, and then they lost Game 1 at home to Washington in the second round. The result is that they are now being asked to cover an ever larger number here in Game 2. I think Atlanta could struggle to win this game outright, never mind covering an inflated spread.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Wizards have now won and covered in five straight on the road, and they've become the first team in history to win Game 1 on the road against the top team in the East in consecutive seasons. I don't see any reason why we should expect this game to be a blowout.

2. Shooting - Atlanta's style of play might work great during the regular season, but there is plenty of doubters out there that don't think they can be successful in the playoffs. When they start missing shots, they don't have anyone to turn to for easy buckets. Kyle Korver was just 3-for-11 from beyond the arc in Game 1, and Jeff Teague was 4-for-14 from the field.

3. X-Factor - The Hawks are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 Conference Semifinals games.

Selection: This is a play on the Washington Wizards (10*)