The Washington Nationals had won six of their last seven and came into last night's opener against the Miami Marlins as a sizable favorite. It was the Fish who walked away as a 2-1 winner though and I like the visitors chances of pulling off an upset today as well.


Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Nats will hand the ball to Max Scherzer (1-3, 1.26 ERA) who's coming off back-to-back losses despite good pitching as he got only a total of one run of support. His only previous meeting with Miami took place back in 2009 while with Arizona but there are plenty of Marlins with decent numbers against the right-hander. One of them is Dee Gordon who is leading the majors with his .422 average and he's 4-for-11 with a homer against Scherzer lifetime. The Fish will counter with Tom Koehler (2-2, 4.67 ERA) who has allowed three or fewer runs in four of five starts on the year. He shut out the Nats in an 8-0 win home at Marlins Park on April 28 as he gave up six hits over 7 1/3 innings of work and posted a 2.50 ERA over 18 innings against the Nats last year.

2. Loudly Barking Dog - The Marlins are 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog and 8-2 in their last 10 when coming up against a team with a losing record which the Nats (13-15) have after a disappointing start to the year. Washington meanwhile has won just one of its last five against a team with a losing record and is not particularly good at bouncing back from defeats winning only two of its last seven following a loss.

3. X-Factor - Miami has the seventh best batting average in the majors this season (.267) while Washington ranks among the bottom third hitting .235 so far.

Selection: This is a play on the Miami Marlins +1.5 (10*)