The Washington Nationals and the Arizona D'Backs have been scoring a ton of runs in this series so far, and we head into the rubber match tied at 1-1. The visitors are a favorite in the finale at Chase Field, but I like Arizona on the runline.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez, and he has pretty good numbers, not just this season by also for his career. Gonzalez (3-2, 3.62 ERA) has been far better at night than he has been in day games though. This year he owns an 8.18 ERA during the day, and when you look at his record over the last three seasons it tells the same story. The D'Backs will counter with Jeremy Hellickson, and has positive day/night splits over the last three years.

2. Arizona Bats - Mark Trumbo had a pair of home runs and four RBIs last night, and the D'Backs scored 14 runs in a route.

3. X-Factor - Arizona is heating up, winners of five of their last eight overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Arizona D'Backs RL (8*)