The St. Louis Cardinals were shut out by Corey Kluber and the Cleveland Indians here at Progressive Field last night as the hosts equalized this three game set 1-1. I like the price we get on the Tribe in the rubber-match today, but I opt to go with a play on the run-line as I expect a tight contest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Cleveland will hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (2-1, 4.19 ERA) who has been roughed up over his last two outings. The 24 year old right-hander usually thrives in day games though and has compiled a 2.80 ERA over 12 day starts over the last three years. He will face the Cardinals for the first time in his career today but he's 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA over five starts against NL opponents. St. Louis will counter with Michael Wacha (5-0, 2.09 ERA) and he has not been quite as successful in his inter-league appearances, with the Cardinals losing all of his five starts and the youngster going 0-3 with a 3.90 ERA. He's had a great start to the year but has over-performed so far in my opinion and we can expect his form to dip just about any time now. We can also note that his 4.42 strikeouts per nine innings to ranks last on the Cardinals.

2. Vicious Dogs - The Tribe have won six of Bauer's last seven starts coming in as a home underdog while the Cardinals have lost each of Wacha's last six coming in as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

3. X-Factor - Matt Holliday was hit on his left elbow by a 94 mph fastball by Corey Kluber in the first inning last night and his availability for today's contest is questionable.

Selection: This is a play on the Cleveland Indians +1.5 (8*)