The Pittsburgh Pirates have dominated the Philadelphia Phillies over recent meetings, claiming eight of the last 10 and they've taken two of the first three in this four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. They'll be looking to deny the Phillies the split this afternoon, and I like the price we get on the visitors.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Phillies will hand the ball to 37 year old Aaron Harang (3-3, 2.38) and although he's been sharp over his first seven starts with the Phillies, I'm still not sure he'll be able to slow down the Pirates here. He has a 4.04 ERA over 28 career starts against Pittsburgh and his last outing was one of his worst for the season as he surrendered three runs (two earned) on eight hits over seven innings of work in a 3-2 home loss against the Mets. Pittsburgh will counter with Vance Worley (2-2, 4.63 ERA) who was torched by the Cardinals at home his last start but had held the same team to just one run on four hits over six innings at Busch Stadium his last start prior. Although he's only faced the Phillies once, a game he won, he should have plenty of knowledge about the team as he pitched for the organization his first three seasons in the majors (2010-2012).

2. Solid Favorites - The Pirates have won each of Worley's last 11 starts coming in as a favorite which includes all of his last five as a road-favorite. The Phillies meanwhile are just 1-4 in their last five as a home underdog.

3. X-Factor - Andrew McCutchen is 6-for-20 with a homer and three walks over previous at bats against Harang and is coming in red hot going 10-for-25 with six RBIs, a homer and four doubles over his last seven games.

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*)