The top two teams in the AL East will clash in the series finale of a four-game set at Tropicana Field tonight. The Rays will be looking to deny the Yankees a split of the series, and I like their chances.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rays will hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez (0-1, 8.38 ERA) who will make his third start of the year. He has allowed just two runs on four hits over nine innings as a reliever in his last five appearances and has hurled a total of four innings against the Yankees on the year, surrendering two runs on a homer with three strikeouts. The Yankees will counter with right-hander Chase Whitley (1-1, 3.06 ERA) who was lit up for five runs on six hits with three homers over 5 2/3 innings in a 5-2 loss against the Orioles his last start. We can note that the Rays are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a right-handed starter.

2. Tampa Bays Defense - The Rays have held opponents to two or fewer runs in 18 games, most in the majors.

3. X-Factor - Asdrubal Cabrera is 3-for-4 against Whitley in previous meetings and he is 3-for-9 over his last three games.

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (8*)