The NL Central rivals the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates will square off in the finale of a three game set at Wrigley Sunday afternoon. The Cubs will be looking to complete the sweep, not only of the Pirates but of a seven game home-stand, but I like the visitors to record an upset today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Cubs will hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.00 ERA) who's off eight solid innings against the Mets but had been roughed up for nine runs (eight earned) on 16 hits over just 10 1/3 innings over his last two starts prior. He's not likely to get much back-up from a bullpen that is among the 10 worst in the majors on the year. The Pirates will hand the ball to A.J. Burnett (2-1, 1.60 ERA) who has conceded two or fewer runs in each of his first seven starts this season. He's 7-4 with a 3.13 ERA in 14 starts against the Cubs and a dominant 5-1 behind a 3.17 ERA in eight outings at Wrigley's.

2. Andrew McCutchen - The Pirates slugger is 6 for 14 with two doubles against Arrieta over previous meetings.

3. X-Factor - The Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series and haven't swept a home-stand of at least seven games since going 7-0 from May 26-June 1, 2008.

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (8*)