Few would have expected the Tampa Rays to be six games ahead of Seattle in the standings at this point in the season, but while the Rays are battling for first in the AL East, the Mariners are struggling to stay out of the cellar in the AL West. I'll take the visitors as the dog at Safeco tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Mariners hand the ball to Felix Hernandez, who is coming off his worst start of the season. Hernandez (8-2, 2.63 ERA) gave up seven runs on six hits in just 4.2 innings in a home loss to the Yankees. The Rays will counter with Alex Colome, and the right-hander is facing a Mariners offense that hasn't been doing much of anything lately.

2. Fernando Rodney - The former Rays closer came in and served up the game winning run on a solo shot off the bat of Logan Forsythe in last night's loss. He has a 9.00 ERA over his last 11 appearances.

3. X-Factor - Both the first two games of this series were decided by one run, and Tampa has played a total of 27 one-run games this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Rays +1.5 (8*)