The Mets have lost two of three here at Chase Field, and they are a road favorite in today's series finale. I like the Diamondbacks here at home against a New York team that has struggled to score runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jacob deGrom will be on the mound for the Mets, and he is coming off a rare win on the road in his last start. deGrom (6-4, 2.41 ERA) shutout the Padres through eight innings in a win at San Diego. Performances like that have been few and far between away from home, where he is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts this season. The D'Backs counter with Josh Collmenter, who failed to earn a decision in his last two home starts, but Arizona won both those games.

2. Paul Goldschmidt - Arizona's slugger is tied for second in the National League with 46 RBIs, and he's hitting .357 at home this season.

3. X-Factor - The D'Backs are second in the major leagues in scoring with 261 runs so far, while the Mets are 25th with just 213 runs.

Selection: This is a play on the Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (8*)