The Cincinnati Reds will host San Diego Sunday afternoon, and the Reds will be heavily favored despite the fact that they've lost four of their last five overall. I don't think the Reds deserve to be a favorite of this size, regardless of who's pitching.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Johnny Cueto will be on the mound or the Reds, but he hasn't been having a great season so far. Cueto (3-4, 2.90 ERA) gave up a pair of runs on five hits over six innings in a loss to the Phillies in his last start. Prior to that he lost at Kansas City, surrendering three runs on nine hits over seven innings. The Padres counter with Odrisamer Despaigne who has allowed just one run on 14 innings winning his last two starts.

2. Reds Bullpen - The Cincinnati relievers have posted an ERA of 4.80 so far this season, and only Atlanta's bullpen ranks worse.

3. X-Factor - The Padres currently rank 5th overall in runs scored, quite a turnaround from previous seasons.

Selection: This is a play on the San Diego Padres +1.5 (8*)