The Miami Marlins will be in Cincinnati tonight, and the Reds have won back-to-back games versus Detroit. I think Cincinnati is a little overpriced here at home tonight with a struggling starter on the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Mike Leake will get the nod for the Reds, and he's been pretty terrible lately. Leake (3-4, 4.35 ERA) gave up three runs on five hits with just one strikeout in five innings in a loss to the Cubs in his last outing. He hasn't pitched well at home, going 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA so far. The Marlins counter with veteran Dan Haren, who has been the epitome of consistency.

2. Reds Bullpen - While the bullpen is hardly a strength for Miami, the Reds relievers are significantly worse posting a 4.16 ERA so far this season.

3. X-Factor - Giancarlo Stanton leads the major leagues with 25 home runs and 63 RBIs this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Miami Marlins +1.5 (8*)