The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres have split the first two games of this series at Chase Field, and I like the home team here in the rubber match on Sunday. The D'backs have won six of their last nine overall, while San Diego has dropped four of six.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Diamondbacks will send Jeremy Hellickson to the hill, and he's turned things around after an ugly start to the season. Hellickson (4-4, 5.10 ERA) gave up two runs on four hits, while striking out six in six innings in a loss at LA in his last start. He's won his last two starts at home, allowing five runs on 10 hits over 12.2 innings in wins over the Mets and the Cubs. The Padres counter with Andrew Cashner, who is just 2-8 with a 4.24 ERA.

2. Paul Goldschmidt - The Arizona slugger is batting a major league best .358 with 19 home runs and 55 RBIs. He's hitting .357 with a home run and three RBIs lifetime versus Cashner.

3. X-Factor - The Padres are 4-11 in Cashners last 15 starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10*)