The AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox, who are sitting bottom of the same division, have split the first two of a three-game set at Tropicana Field. The hosts are coming into the rubber-match this afternoon as hefty favorites, and I expect them to prove to be well worth the price.

Here are my keys to the game:

1 Pitching - The Rays will hand the ball to Chris Archer (9-4, 2.01 ERA) who's undefeated over his last nine starts, going 6-0 with a 1.61 ERA. This will be his second start of the season against the Red Sox as he held them scoreless over 5 2/3 innings here at the Trop back in April. The Red Sox will counter with Justin Masterson (2-2, 6.37 ERA) to make his eighth start of the year, first since May 12. He has missed five weeks with shoulder tendinitis and is unlikely to be at his best right off the bat. Archer is 1-5 with a 5.18 ERA in eight meetings with the Red Sox, but Masterson has had even bigger issues with the Rays going 2-7 with a 7.16 ERA in 11 starts.

2. Evan Longoria - The 29 year old was 2-for-4 with a homer last night and is batting .393 with three homers and four doubles in his last seven against Boston.

3. X-Factor - The Rays have won six of their last eight versus a team with a losing record.

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Bay Rays (8*)