The Cincinnati Reds are coming into the series-finale of a three-game set at Nationals Park Wednesday eyeing the sweep. I expect the Washington Nationals to finally crack the Reds tonight though after losing each of the first five in the season series.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Reds will hand the ball to Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.58 ERA) who lasted only four innings when he absorbed the 12-1 home-loss to Milwaukee after surrendering three runs on five hits with two homers. He conceded two runs on only one hit but six walks against the Nats back on May 31. The Nationals will counter with Gio Gonzalez (6-4, 4.16 ERA) who's off a pair of wins working seven innings in each game and conceding only one run in total. He's 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA in seven starts home in Washington for the season and is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six lifetime starts against the Reds.

2. Situational - The Reds have won only one of their last eight against a left-handed starter and they're 2-5 in their last seven following a win.

3. X-Factor - The Nats have won nine of their last 11 at home.

Selection: This is a play on the Washington Nationals (8*)