The Tigers have split the first two games of this series versus the Red Sox, but I think they'll have a tough time here in the rubber match at Fenway tonight. Both these teams have been struggling, but the Red Sox appear to have the advantage with a superior starting pitcher in this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Shane Greene will get the start for the Tigers, but he might already have a ticket booked back to Triple-A. Greene (4-7, 6.52 ERA) was roughed up for five runs on six hits and two walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to Seattle his last time out. He's surrendered at least five runs in five straight appearances. The Red Sox counter with rookie left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 5-3 with a 4.63 ERA so far.

2. Batter vs Pitcher - The Red Sox lineup is hitting a combined .303 versus Greene.

3. X-Factor - The home team is 10-1 in umpire Tim Welkes last 11 Sunday games behind home plate.

Selection: This is a play on the Boston Red Sox (10*)