The Blue Jays are making a run in the AL East, sitting just 5.5 games back of the first place Yankees. Toronto has split the first two games of this series versus the Mariners, and I like their chances here in the rubber match at Safeco on Sunday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Mark Buehrle will be on the mound for the Jays, and he's been the epitome of consistency over the last two months. Buehrle (11-5, 3.23 ERA) gave up just a single run on eight hits over seven frames in a win at Oakland in his last outing. He's limited the opposition to two runs or less in nine straight starts. The Mariners will counter with Taijuan Walker, who is coming off three straight poor performances.

2. Previous History - Buehrle is 5-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last nine starts, and he boasts a 1.93 ERA in three starts versus Seattle since 2012.

3. X-Factor - The Blue Jays are 20-6 in Buehrles last 26 starts as a favorite.

Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays (10*)