The New York Yankees and the Houston Astros have split the first two of this three-game set at Yankee Stadium after a convincing 15-1 Astros win last night. They're now a game behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East division title while the Astros are sitting pretty at the top of the AL West 4.5 games ahead of Texas. The Bronx Bombers need this win more than Houston and I expect the home team to win this afternoon's rubber-match.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Collin McHugh (13-7, 3.96 ERA) who's 1-2 in his last four starts despite posting a minuscule 1.67 ERA. He has received no runs of support in his last two games and just one in his last three, and runs won't come easy here either as the Yankees counter with Michael Pineda (9-7, 3.97). The 26 year old will make his first start since July 24 when he was sidelined due to a right flexor forearm muscle strain. He had surrendered nine runs on 14 hits in 11 2/3 innings in two starts prior being placed on the disabled list clearly inhibited by his injury. He'll be pumped up here in his first start back and he's held Houston to two earned runs in eight innings earlier in the season.

2. Situational - The Astros have won just two of their last 11 games as a road underdog in the +110 to +150 span. They're 2-6 in McHugh's last 8 road starts overall while the Yankees are 4-1 in Pineda's last five starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

3. X-Factor - Pineda has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors for pitchers with 100+ innings under their belt for the year with 117 strikeouts versus just 15 walks over 118 innings.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Yankees (10*)