The Chicago Cubs are coming into the National League Wild Card game on the back of eight consecutive victories, much thanks to outstanding pitching. The Pirates pitching staff finished the regular season with the second-best ERA, much thanks to their ace Gerrit Cole. Runs won't come easy for either team here and I think we'll see this game go under the set total.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Cubs hand the ball to the phenomenal Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) who is off three consecutive shutout performances spanning 22 innings over which he's yielded just a total of six hits and one walk while fanning 27 batters. He's been efficient all around all season, but has been particularly dominant on the road and in night games. The Pirates counter with Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60 ERA) who is off three straight quality starts. The under is 14-6-1 in Cole's last 21 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and he has posted a 2.13 ERA over four meetings spanning 25 1/3 innings against the Cubs this season.
2. Batter versus Pitcher - Jake Arrieta has held the Pirates to four runs (three earned) on 18 hits over 36 innings of work this season, limiting them to a .151 team batting average.
3. X-Factor - The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Selection: This is a play on the Cubs@Pirates to go under the total (10*)