The Houston Cougars will host the SMU Mustangs on Thursday night, and I expect this to be an old fashioned Texas Shootout. The Mustangs have lost three straight, giving up a total of 153 points, and they'll face a high scoring Cougars team in Houston. My money is on the over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Matt Davis - The Mustangs certainly can't blame their quarterback for their 1-4 start. Davis has thrown for 1182 yards with eight TDs and two INTs in five games. He threw for season high 364 yards on the road at TCU.

2. Houston Offense - The Cougars are tied for fourth overall in the country in scoring, averaging 45.8 points per game. They are averaging 55.5 points per game at home, and they've gone over in four straight at home.

3. X-Factor - The Over is 6-0 in Mustangs last 6 road games.

Selection: This is a play on SMU@Houston to go OVER the total (8*)