The set: VCU (23-6) and Dayton (23-5) have both likely done enough to earn an at-large bid to the Big Dance, even if one of them doesn't go on to earn the A-10's automatic bid by capturing the conference tourney. The Flyers are 14-2 in league play with the Rams a game behind at 13-3. VCU won the first meeting 73-68 at home, so a win by the Rams would give them the tie breaker.

VCU: The Rams find themselves one game back of the Flyers after seeing their nine-game winning streak snapped in a 69-59 loss to Rhode Island in their last outing. PG Lewis (15.1 & 4.4 APG) and the 6-7 Tillman (12.1 & 8.3) are the team's lone double digit scorers but the 6-7 Alie-Cox (9.7 & 4.1) plus guards Doughty (9.0) and Williams (8.7) are all quality players and regular contributors.

Dayton: The Flyers toppled Davidson 89-82 in OT in their last outing, giving them eight straight wins. Guards Cooke (16.3 & 5.3) and Smith (13.9-3.1-4.2) plus the 6-6 Pollard (13.9 & 5.1) are the team's key contributors.

The pick: VCU has won at least 24 games for 10 straight seasons (the run spans three head coaches) and the Rams will surely win at least 24 gain this year, although win No. 24 won't come here. VCU is a modest 10-15 ATS on the season, while Dayton is a money-making 18-8 ATS and has gone 14-1 SU at home, winning by an average margin of just under 15 PPG. Make Dayton an 8* play.