The set-up: The Golden State Warriors are now 13-0 in this year's postseason (9-4 ATS), after a dominating 113-91 victory over the Cavs in Game 1 this past Thursday. Kevin Durant is making his first Finals appearance since losing to LBJ and the Miami Heat as a member of the OKC Thunder in 2012, and he certainly "came to play," scoring 38 points while adding eight rebounds and eight assists (zero TOs!). Curry, a huge disappointment in last year's Finals but the Warriors' best player during the team's playoff run so far, added 28 points (shot 6 of 11 on threes) plus had 10 assists. LBJ had 28-15-8 but it was a 'quiet' game for him, as Golden State's defense held the Cavs to 34.9% shooting and forced 20 TOs (LBJ had eight)! The Cavs came in averaging just a tick over 116 points in the 2017 playoffs but were held to just 91 points!

Cleveland: Kyrie had 24 poinst and Love another double-double (15 & 21) but Thompson and Smith (Cleveland's other two starters), combined for only three points (all by Smith). Cleveland added talent during the regular season in an effort to get LBJ the help he asked for but PG Deron Williams, SG Kyle Korver and PF Derrick Williams combined to go scoreless on 0-of-9 shooting off the bench in Game 1. Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue noted that it's been a while since his team had seen the Warriors and that experience is bound to help. "Just getting a chance to see how they play, the style of play, how fast they play, you can't really simulate that in practices," Lue said. "You got to really get out here and get a chance to do it firsthand. When we experience that, we're able to adjust, we're a lot better."

Golden State: Adjusting is fine but the Cavs have to be worried that the Warriors didn't play their best, either (other than K.D. and Curry). Green and Thompson combined to shoot an awful 6 of 28, as Golden State shot 42.4 percent for the game, including 12 of 33 on threes. What the Warriors did do well is take care of the ball (just four turnovers) and grab 14 offensive rebounds. Green (3-of-12) and Thompson (3-of-16) shot horribly but both are outstanding defenders.

The pick: The talk has turned into "Can the Warriors become the first team to go through the postseason undefeated." However, while favorites are now 18-9 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 1991 (current 12-1 ATS run since 2005!), it should be noted that favorites are just 9-16-1 ATS in that same span, including entering tonight's Game 2 on a 2-7 ATS run. Yes, I expect a much better effort from the Cavs, as the team's 91-point effort was the first time the Cavs had been held to under 108 points in 14 postseason games in 2017. However, I also expect the Warriors to shoot better overall, especially Green and Thompson. The over/under number is down a few points from Game1 and I believe the best value is on the Over, which is a 10* play.