The set-up: The Brewers coughed up a 5 1/2 game lead over the Cubs at the All Star break in the NL Central. However, after losing six straight from Aug. 6-11, Milwaukee had won six of seven to climb back to within two games of the Cubs, as they began a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Monday. The good news was that the Giants owned MLB's third-worst record plus MLB's worst moneyline mark but the kicker was that the Brewers had dropped 35 of their last 55 games in San Francisco, including nine of their last 10. "Lightning didn't strike," as the Giants shut out the Brewers 2-0 last night, as Milwaukee managed only four singles in the defeat (ruined a solid effort by Davies, who allowed two uneraned runs in six innings). The setback was Milwaukee's 10th in its last 11 meetings at AT&T Park, dropping them 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and 3 1/2 back of Arizona for the second wild-card spot. San Francisco improved to 3-2 on its seven-game homestand as rookie Chris Stratton and three relievers combined on the four-hit shutout.

The pitching matchup: Jimmy Nelson (9-6 & 3.74 ERA) will look to help Milwaukee get back on the winning track and will be opposed by the seemingly always underachieving Jeff Samardzija (8-12 & 4.79 ERA). However, Nelson is coming off back-to-back poor outings, surrendering 15 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts (10.80 ERA). It doesn't bode well for Milwaukee that Nelson's road ERA in 2017 (4.22) is just about a full run higher than it is at home (3.39). Nelson evened his career record against San Francisco at 2-2 on June 7, when he gave up three runs on seven hits in six innings of a 6-3 victory. Samardzija has won four of his last five starts but he still ranks in the bottom-25 of over 300 different starters in 2017 with the Giants going 11-14, minus-$524 in his 25 starts this season. Samardzija gave up only two runs (one earned) on six hits while recording 10 strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings at Milwaukee. back on June 5 but took the loss to fall to 3-6 lifetime against the Brewers (in starts and relief appearances)

The pick: Samardzija has beaten the Brewers just once in 11 career starts against them, going 1-5 with a 4.43 ERA (teams are 2-9). Nelson's season has imploded with his last two outings and I'm not about to predict a turnaround here. Make the Over an 8* play.