The set-up: I think that Jacob deGrom is undervalued in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, but I think the home side has the advantage in this one.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 5-8 with a 4.69 ERA. Velasquez hit the DL in his previous start with a liner off his arm, but he's been given the green light to go in this one. Velasquez has been better on the road than at home, but note that he's just 2-7 with a 5.01 ERA in all "night" games.

deGrom is so far 5-4 with a 1.79 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits with a walk while striking out eight over eight innings in a no-decision to Tampa on Friday. deGrom was efficient, throwing 73 of his 105 pitches for strikes and generating a whopping 22 swinging strikes in the dominant outing.

The pick: deGrom has been sharp at home as well with a tiny 1.80 ERA. Velasquez has been "hit or miss" all season, but deGrom is in line for a Cy Young. When I add it all up, I think deGrom should be a larger favorite in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on the Mets.