The set-up: Arizona's ace Zack Grienke has been "lights out" at home, and I expect that trend to carry over here. The Rockies' Antonio Senzatela is in over his head in my opinion.

The pitchers: Senzatela is so far 3-2 with a 5.34 ERA. He comes off the ten day DL due to a blister issue, but in his final start before the break he'd give up six runs over six innings in a loss to the Mariners.

Greinke is so far 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA. In his final start before the mid summer classic he'd go eight scoreless in a victory over Atlanta, walking one and striking out seven. To go along with his sharp ERA, Greinke also owns a 1.15 WHP and 9.2 K/9 over 20 starts this season.

The pick: And as I mentioned off the top, Greinke has been better at home (4-1, 2.56 ERA) than on the road (6-4, 3.77) so far this year.

This is a mismatch of epic proportions on the mound in my opinion and it makes the home side well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Lay the price.