The set-up: I think James Paxton and the hard-hitting home side are worth the price in this particular matchup. The visitors send Andrew Suarez to the mound in this one.

The teams: Suarez is so far 3-6 with a 3.94 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he'd get shelled for four runs over five innings in a loss to the Athletics. Suarez has been solid, not spectacular in his rookie year and note that he's been at his worst on the road by going 2-3 with a 4.95 ERA.

Paxton is so far 8-4 with a 3.70 ERA. The veteran landed on the DL for 12 days prior to the All Star game, but he's thrown a 40-pitch bullpen session and he's declared himself pain free. The flame-thrower will now look to build upon his already impressive 4-2, 3.54 ERA home record.

The pick: Not only are the Giants just 20-31 (-2.9 units) on the road this year, but they're also only 18-22 (-1.6 units) against southpaws. The Mariners are 33-18 (+10.2 units) at home and 6-2 in their last eight against left-handed starters. I like a rested and focused Paxton to easily get the better of his inconsistent counterpart on Tuesday night. Lay the price.