The set-up: The Brewers fell 8-5 in San Francisco last night, while the Dodgers lost 4-1 in Atlanta yesterday afternoon. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors LA. The visitors go with Freddy Peralta, while the home side goes with Kenta Maeda.

The pitchers: Peralta is so far 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA. He most recently allowed seven runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Washington on Wednesday. Over 43.1 innings so far he's allowed 22 walks.

Maeda is so far 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off six hits over seven innings, striking out seven and walking no one in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that it was the first time since mid May that he's allowed more than three runs. Note as well that he owns a solid 2.74 ERA at home.

The pick: The Brewers have been strong on the road, but their rookie is in over his head here in my opinion. I look for Maeda to continue his strong play at home and to find a way to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Lay the price.