The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. When it's all said and done though, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The teams: Severino is so far 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA. After an almost unstoppable start to the 2018 campaign, he's come back down to Earth over the last month and a half, but he does enter off a decent start against the punch-less White Sox. Severino has been elite, but note he does possess a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Bundy is so far 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA. The veteran finished 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, but he's been a complete disaster this season. Especially at home where he is a poor 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go "over" the number in 14 of its last 22 night home games in which it's an underdog in the +150 to +250 range. This number is a little low, play the "over."